Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sat 7 Nov · 16:00 (Italian time)
Fulham vs Newcastle: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Fulham, 15th on 9 points, host Newcastle United, 13th on 11, on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time) in a game between sides in the lower half of the table. The hosts come off a 1-1 draw at Aston Villa and have taken 4 points from four home games; the visitors lost 1-0 at home to Everton and have conceded 15 goals in nine games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFulham | AwayNewcastle |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th9 points | 13th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–4 | 3–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 9–111.0–1.2 per match | 12–151.3–1.7 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 5in 5 matches |
| Points away | 5in 5 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Fulham: three clean sheets in nine games
Fulham have two wins, three draws and four defeats, with 9 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have taken 4 points from four games, away 5 from five. Three of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they drew 1-1 at Aston Villa, and in their last five games they have won two and lost one.
Newcastle United: 15 goals conceded in nine games
Newcastle United have three wins, two draws and four defeats, with 12 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 5 points from five games, away 6 from four. Five of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they lost 1-0 at home to Everton, and in their last five games they have won two and lost three.
What to expect
The model gives Fulham 46% and Newcastle United 29%, with the draw at 26% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Under 2.5 is at 51%, both teams to score at 53%; a clean sheet for Fulham is rated at 32%.
Our prediction
Fulham vs Newcastle · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
73% estimated probability
Under 3.5, at most 3 goals in total, is rated at 73%: the model expects 2.6 goals, and only three of Fulham’s nine games have had at least three goals.
Fulham under 1.5 goals
Fulham score at most once
56% estimated probability
Fulham under 1.5 goals, meaning Fulham score at most once, is at 56%: the model expects 1.5 goals from the hosts, who have scored 9 in nine games.
1X & Under 2.5
Fulham avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
38% estimated probability
1X & Under 2.5 (Fulham avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total) is at 38%: the model gives 46% to a Fulham win and 26% to the draw.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.