Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Ipswich Town vs Bournemouth: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Ipswich Town, 14th on 11 points, host AFC Bournemouth, 8th on 12, on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-2 draw at Hull City, the visitors a 2-0 home win over Leeds United. Ipswich Town have yet to keep a clean sheet.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeIpswich Town | AwayBournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th11 points | 8th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–4 | 3–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 14–181.6–2.0 per match | 14–131.6–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 4 matches | 8in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Ipswich Town: no clean sheets in nine games
Ipswich Town have three wins, two draws and four defeats, with 14 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from four games, away 4 from five. Six of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have no clean sheets. Last time out they drew 2-2 at Hull City, and in their last five games they have won one, drawn two and lost two.
AFC Bournemouth: 4 points from four away games
AFC Bournemouth have three wins, three draws and three defeats, with 14 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have taken 8 points from five games, away 4 from four. Five of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they beat Leeds United 2-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won three and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives AFC Bournemouth 45% and Ipswich Town 33%, with the draw at 23% and 1.8 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 65%, both teams to score at 65%; a clean sheet for AFC Bournemouth is rated at 22%.
Our prediction
Ipswich Town vs Bournemouth · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 2-5
From 2 to 5 goals in total
72% estimated probability
Total goals 2-5, from 2 to 5 goals in total, is rated at 72%: the model expects 3.3 goals and Ipswich Town have finished six of nine games with at least three goals.
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
57% estimated probability
Under 3.5, at most 3 goals in total, is at 57%: the model expects 3.3 goals and AFC Bournemouth have conceded 13 in nine games.
X2 & Under 3.5
Bournemouth avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
X2 & Under 3.5 (AFC Bournemouth avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total) is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 45% for a win for the visitors and 23% for the draw.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.