Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sat 7 Nov · 18:30 (Italian time)
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Nottingham Forest, 19th on 6 points and with the worst attack in the league, host Manchester City, 2nd on 21, on Saturday at 18:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-0 defeat at Brentford; the visitors lost 1-0 at home to Brighton & Hove Albion but have the second-best attack in the league, with 20 goals in nine games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeNottingham Forest | AwayManchester City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th6 points | 2nd21 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–3–5 | 7–0–2 |
| Goals for–against | 6–120.7–1.3 per match | 20–102.2–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 4 matches | 12in 5 matches |
| Points away | 5in 5 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Nottingham Forest: the worst attack in the league
Nottingham Forest have one win, three draws and five defeats, with 6 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have taken 1 point from four games, away 5 from five. Three of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 2-0 at Brentford, and in their last five games they have drawn one and lost four.
Manchester City: the second-best attack in the league
Manchester City have seven wins and two defeats, with 20 goals scored and 10 conceded, the second-best attack in the league. At home they have taken 12 points from five games, away 9 from four. Six of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 1-0 at home to Brighton & Hove Albion, and in their last five games they have won three and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Manchester City 57% and Nottingham Forest 20%, with the draw at 23% and 1.7 expected goals to 0.9. The most likely scores are 0-1 (12%), 1-1 and 0-2 (11%) and 1-2 (10%). Over 2.5 is at 50%, both teams to score at 50%; a clean sheet for Manchester City is rated at 40%.
Our prediction
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
12
No draw
77% estimated probability
12, no draw, is rated at 77%: the model gives 23% to the draw, with 1.7 goals expected for Manchester City against 0.9.
2
Manchester City win
57% estimated probability
A Manchester City win is at 57%: the model expects 1.7 goals from the visitors, who have taken 9 points from four away games.
2 & Under 3.5
Manchester City win and at most 3 goals in total
39% estimated probability
2 & Under 3.5 (a Manchester City win and at most 3 goals in total) is at 39%: the model expects 2.7 goals and Nottingham Forest score 0.7 goals a game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.