Premier League · Matchday 10 · Sun 8 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Sunderland vs Chelsea: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Sunderland, bottom on 5 points, host Chelsea, 4th on 16 and with the third-best attack in the league, on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 3-1 defeat at Coventry City, the visitors a 2-0 home win over Manchester United. Sunderland have taken 4 points from four home games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeSunderland | AwayChelsea |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th5 points | 4th16 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–6 | 5–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 7–170.8–1.9 per match | 19–152.1–1.7 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 10in 5 matches |
| Points away | 1in 5 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Sunderland: 7 goals scored in nine games
Sunderland have one win, two draws and six defeats, with 7 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have taken 4 points from four games, away 1 from five. Three of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they lost 3-1 at Coventry City, and in their last five games they have drawn one and lost four.
Chelsea: the third-best attack in the league
Chelsea have five wins, one draw and three defeats, with 19 goals scored and 15 conceded, the third-best attack in the league. At home they have taken 10 points from five games, away 6 from four. Six of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they beat Manchester United 2-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won three and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Chelsea 53% and Sunderland 25%, with the draw at 22% and 2.0 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 1-2 (10%) and 0-1 and 0-2 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 62%; a clean sheet for Chelsea is rated at 28%.
Our prediction
Sunderland vs Chelsea · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Chelsea win or draw
75% estimated probability
X2, Chelsea win or draw, is rated at 75%: the model gives 53% to a win for the visitors and 22% to the draw, with 2.0 goals expected against 1.3.
Total goals 1-3
From 1 to 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Total goals 1-3, from 1 to 3 goals in total, is at 56%: the model expects 3.2 goals and Sunderland have scored 7 goals in nine games.
Both teams to score: no
At least one team fails to score
38% estimated probability
Both teams to score: no, at least one team fails to score, is at 38%: the boldest pick, since the model gives 62% to both teams scoring; Chelsea have kept two clean sheets.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.