Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sat 7 Nov · 15:30 (Italian time)
Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Borussia Dortmund, 2nd on 18 points and still unbeaten, host Elversberg, 7th on 13, on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). The hosts have the best defence in the league, with 6 goals conceded in eight games, and come off a 2-2 draw at Bayern Munich; the visitors beat Mainz 4-1 and have scored 16 goals.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBorussia Dortmund | AwayElversberg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd18 points | 7th13 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–3–0 | 4–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 14–61.8–0.8 per match | 16–162.0–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 4 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Points away | 8in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 5 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Borussia Dortmund: the best defence in the league
Borussia Dortmund have five wins and three draws, with 14 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from four games, away 8 from four. They have kept five clean sheets in eight games and had four games with at least three goals. Last time out they drew 2-2 at Bayern Munich.
Elversberg: six games out of eight with at least three goals
Elversberg have four wins, a draw and three defeats, with 16 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have taken 9 points from four games, away 4 from four. Six of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they beat Mainz 4-1.
What to expect
The model gives Borussia Dortmund 67% and Elversberg 14%, with the draw at 19% and 2.2 expected goals to 0.9. The most likely scores are 2-0 (11%), 2-1 and 1-0 (10%) and 1-1 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 61%, both teams to score at 54%; a clean sheet for Borussia Dortmund is rated at 40%.
Our prediction
Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 first half
At least one goal in the first half
76% estimated probability
Over 0.5 first half, at least one goal in the first half, is rated at 76%: the model expects 3.2 goals in total and Elversberg have finished six games out of eight with at least three goals.
1 & Over 1.5
Borussia Dortmund win and at least 2 goals in total
58% estimated probability
1 & Over 1.5 (a Borussia Dortmund win and at least 2 goals in total) is at 58%: the model gives Borussia Dortmund 67%, with 2.2 goals expected against 0.9.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
39% estimated probability
Over 3.5, at least 4 goals in total, is at 39%: the boldest pick, with 3.2 goals expected and Elversberg having conceded 16 in eight games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.