Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sun 8 Nov · 19:30 (Italian time)
Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Hoffenheim, 12th on 9 points, host Schalke 04, 17th on 6 and with the worst attack in the league, on Sunday at 19:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-0 defeat at Werder Bremen, the visitors a 2-0 home defeat to RB Leipzig. Hoffenheim have taken 6 points from four home games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeHoffenheim | AwaySchalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th9 points | 17th6 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–5 | 1–3–4 |
| Goals for–against | 14–161.8–2.0 per match | 4–90.5–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 4 matches | 2in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
Hoffenheim: seven of eight games with at least three goals
Hoffenheim have three wins and five defeats, with 14 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from four games, away 3 from four. Seven of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 2-0 at Werder Bremen.
Schalke 04: the worst attack in the league
Schalke 04 have one win, three draws and four defeats, with 4 goals scored and 9 conceded, the worst attack in the league. At home they have taken 2 points from four games, away 4 from four. Three of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in two; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-0 at home to RB Leipzig.
What to expect
The model gives Hoffenheim 55% and Schalke 04 21%, with the draw at 24% and 1.7 expected goals to 0.9. The most likely scores are 1-0 and 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 and 2-1 (10%). Under 2.5 is at 52%, both teams to score at 49%; a clean sheet for Hoffenheim is rated at 39%.
Our prediction
Hoffenheim vs Schalke 04 · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
73% estimated probability
Under 3.5, at most 3 goals in total, is rated at 73%: the model expects 2.6 goals and Schalke 04 have scored 4 goals in eight games.
1X & Under 3.5
Hoffenheim avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
57% estimated probability
1X & Under 3.5 (Hoffenheim avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total) is at 57%: the model gives 55% to a win for the hosts and 24% to the draw.
Hoffenheim clean sheet
Hoffenheim do not concede
39% estimated probability
Hoffenheim clean sheet, Hoffenheim do not concede, is at 39%: the boldest pick, with 0.9 goals expected for Schalke 04, who have scored 4 goals in eight games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.