Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sat 7 Nov · 15:30 (Italian time)
Mainz vs Bayern Munich: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Mainz, 9th on 10 points, host league leaders Bayern Munich, who have 18 points and have yet to lose, on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 4-1 defeat at Elversberg and have taken just 1 point from four home games; the visitors have the best attack in the league, with 27 goals, and come off a 2-2 draw with Borussia Dortmund.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMainz | AwayBayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th10 points | 1st18 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–1–4 | 5–3–0 |
| Goals for–against | 17–172.1–2.1 per match | 27–83.4–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 4 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 9in 4 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Mainz: 1 point from four home games
Mainz have three wins, a draw and four defeats, with 17 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have taken just 1 point from four games, away 9 from four. Six of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 4-1 at Elversberg.
Bayern Munich: the best attack in the league
Bayern Munich have yet to lose: five wins and three draws, with 27 goals scored and 8 conceded, the best attack and the second-best defence in the league. At home they have taken 10 points from four games, away 8 from four. Seven of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six. Last time out they drew 2-2 with Borussia Dortmund.
What to expect
The model gives Bayern Munich 67% and Mainz 16%, with the draw at 17% and 2.7 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 1-2 (9%), 1-3 (8%), 0-2 (7%) and 1-1 (6%). Over 2.5 is at 76%, both teams to score at 68%; a clean sheet for Bayern Munich is rated at 27%.
Our prediction
Mainz vs Bayern Munich · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Bayern Munich 2+ goals
Bayern Munich score at least twice
75% estimated probability
The model gives 75% to Bayern Munich 2+ goals, with 2.7 goals expected: they have scored 27 in eight games, the best attack in the league.
2 & Over 2.5
Bayern Munich win and at least 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
2 & Over 2.5 (a Bayern Munich win and at least 3 goals in total) is at 56%: the model gives Bayern Munich a 67% chance of winning and expects 4.0 goals in total.
Over 4.5
At least 5 goals in total
37% estimated probability
Over 4.5, at least 5 goals in total, is at 37%: the boldest pick, with 4.0 goals expected and Mainz having conceded 17 in eight games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.