Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sat 7 Nov · 18:30 (Italian time)
Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Stuttgart, 11th on 9 points, host Werder Bremen, 5th on 15, on Saturday at 18:30 (Italian time) in a game the model sees as rich in goals. The hosts come off a 4-2 win at Bayer Leverkusen and have taken 3 points from three home games; the visitors beat Hoffenheim 2-0 and have scored 17 goals.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeStuttgart | AwayWerder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th9 points | 5th15 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–5 | 4–3–1 |
| Goals for–against | 14–151.8–1.9 per match | 17–142.1–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 5 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Stuttgart: five games out of eight with at least three goals
Stuttgart have three wins and five defeats, with 14 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 6 from five. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they won 4-2 at Bayer Leverkusen.
Werder Bremen: both teams scored in seven of eight games
Werder Bremen have four wins, three draws and a defeat, with 17 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from four games, away 5 from four. Six of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they beat Hoffenheim 2-0 at home.
What to expect
The model gives Stuttgart 50% and Werder Bremen 29%, with the draw at 21% and 2.1 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 1-1 (9%) and 2-2 and 1-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 69%, both teams to score at 68%; a clean sheet for Stuttgart is rated at 22%.
Our prediction
Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Stuttgart win or draw
71% estimated probability
1X, Stuttgart win or draw, is rated at 71%: the model gives 50% to a win and 21% to the draw, with 2.1 goals expected against 1.5.
Total goals 3-5
From 3 to 5 goals in total
54% estimated probability
Total goals 3-5, from 3 to 5 goals in total, is at 54%: the model expects 3.6 goals and Werder Bremen have finished six of eight games with at least three goals.
1 & Over 2.5
Stuttgart win and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
1 & Over 2.5 (a Stuttgart win and at least 3 goals in total) is at 38%: the model gives 69% to Over 2.5 and 50% to a Stuttgart win.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.