Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sun 8 Nov · 15:30 (Italian time)
Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Cologne, 13th on 9 points, host Bayer Leverkusen, 6th on 13, on Sunday at 15:30 (Italian time) in a game the model sees as rich in goals. The hosts come off a 1-1 draw at Union Berlin, the visitors a 4-2 home defeat to Stuttgart. Cologne have taken 8 points from four home games, Bayer Leverkusen 4 from four away.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCologne | AwayBayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th9 points | 6th13 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–3 | 4–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 9–121.1–1.5 per match | 18–162.2–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 8in 4 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Points away | 1in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Cologne: 8 points from four home games
Cologne have two wins, three draws and three defeats, with 9 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have taken 8 points from four games, away 1 from four. Four of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they drew 1-1 at Union Berlin.
Bayer Leverkusen: 18 goals scored in eight games
Bayer Leverkusen have four wins, one draw and three defeats, with 18 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have taken 9 points from four games, away 4 from four. Seven of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they lost 4-2 at home to Stuttgart.
What to expect
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen 47% and Cologne 30%, with the draw at 23% and 1.8 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 and 0-1 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 63%; a clean sheet for Bayer Leverkusen is rated at 24%.
Our prediction
Cologne vs Bayer Leverkusen · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Cologne to score
At least one goal for Cologne
76% estimated probability
Cologne to score, at least one goal for Cologne, is rated at 76%: the model expects 1.4 goals from the hosts, who have scored 9 in eight games.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
53% estimated probability
Both teams score & Over 2.5 (both teams score and at least 3 goals in total) is at 53%: the model expects 3.2 goals and both teams have scored in six of Cologne’s eight games.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
40% estimated probability
Over 3.5, at least 4 goals in total, is at 40%: the boldest pick, with 3.2 goals expected in total and seven of Bayer Leverkusen’s eight games with at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.