Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sun 8 Nov · 17:30 (Italian time)
Freiburg vs Union Berlin: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Freiburg, third on 16 points, host Union Berlin, 16th on 7, on Sunday at 17:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 2-1 win at Augsburg, the visitors a 1-1 home draw with Cologne. Freiburg have taken 9 points from four home games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFreiburg | AwayUnion Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd16 points | 16th7 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–1–2 | 1–4–3 |
| Goals for–against | 18–102.2–1.2 per match | 7–190.9–2.4 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 4 matches | 6in 5 matches |
| Points away | 7in 4 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Freiburg: seven of eight games with more than two goals
Freiburg have five wins, one draw and two defeats, with 18 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 9 points from four games, away 7 from four. Seven of their eight games have had more than two goals and both teams have scored in six; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they won 2-1 at Augsburg.
Union Berlin: 1 point from three away games
Union Berlin have one win, four draws and three defeats, with 7 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from five games, away 1 from three. Four of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they drew 1-1 at home with Cologne.
What to expect
The model gives Freiburg 71% and Union Berlin 13%, with the draw at 17% and 2.5 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%) and 3-0 and 3-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 68%, both teams to score at 57%; a clean sheet for Freiburg is rated at 38%.
Our prediction
Freiburg vs Union Berlin · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Union Berlin under 1.5 goals
Union Berlin score at most once
74% estimated probability
Union Berlin under 1.5 goals, meaning Union Berlin score at most once, is rated at 74%: the model expects 1.0 goals from the visitors, who have scored 7 in eight games.
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
54% estimated probability
Under 3.5, at most 3 goals in total, is at 54%: the model expects 3.5 goals and Freiburg have finished seven of eight games with more than two goals.
1X & not both score
Freiburg avoid defeat and at least one team fails to score
38% estimated probability
1X & not both score (Freiburg avoid defeat and at least one team fails to score) is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 71% for a Freiburg win and 38% for their clean sheet.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.