Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Fri 6 Nov · 20:30 (Italian time)
Hamburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Hamburg host Borussia Mönchengladbach on Friday at 20:30 (Italian time) in a clash between sides in need of a lift. Hamburg are 15th on 9 points and come off a 3-1 defeat at Eintracht Frankfurt; the visitors are 18th on 4 points and have the most-beaten defence in the league, with 22 goals conceded in eight games. An open game is in prospect.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeHamburg | AwayBorussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th9 points | 18th4 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–5 | 1–1–6 |
| Goals for–against | 7–190.9–2.4 per match | 11–221.4–2.8 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 3 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 5 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Hamburg: 19 goals conceded in eight games
Hamburg have won three games out of eight and lost five, with 7 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 3 from five. They have kept one clean sheet and five games have had at least three goals. Last time out they lost 3-1 at Frankfurt.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: seven games out of eight with at least three goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach have one win, a draw and six defeats, with 11 goals scored and 22 conceded: the most-beaten defence in the league. Away they have taken 3 points from four games, at home 1 from four. Seven of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five. Last time out they drew 0-0 at home to Paderborn.
What to expect
The model gives Hamburg 41% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 36%, with the draw at 23% and 1.7 expected goals to 1.6. The most likely scores are 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%) and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 65%, both teams to score at 66%; a clean sheet for Hamburg is rated at 20%.
Our prediction
Hamburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 2-5
From 2 to 5 goals in total
72% estimated probability
Total goals 2-5 at 72%: the model expects 3.3 goals in total and the two defences have conceded 19 and 22 goals in eight games.
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
58% estimated probability
The model gives Under 3.5 58%, meaning at most 3 goals in total, against 3.3 expected goals: Hamburg have scored just 7 goals in eight games.
1X & Under 3.5
Hamburg avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
1X & Under 3.5 (Hamburg avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total) is rated at 37% by the model; at home they have taken 6 points from three games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.