Bundesliga · Matchday 9 · Sat 7 Nov · 15:30 (Italian time)
RB Leipzig vs Augsburg: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
RB Leipzig, 4th on 15 points, host Augsburg, 10th on 9, on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time) in a game the model sees as rich in goals. The hosts have the second-best attack in the league, with 22 goals in eight games, and come off a 2-0 win at Schalke 04; the visitors lost 2-1 at home to Freiburg but have scored 18 goals.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRB Leipzig | AwayAugsburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th15 points | 10th9 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 5–0–3 | 2–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 22–112.8–1.4 per match | 18–152.2–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 4 matches | 6in 5 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 5 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
RB Leipzig: the second-best attack in the league
RB Leipzig have five wins and three defeats, with 22 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have taken 12 points from four games, away 3 from four. Six of their eight games have had at least three goals; they have five clean sheets. Last time out they won 2-0 at Schalke 04.
Augsburg: both teams scored in seven of eight games
Augsburg have two wins, three draws and three defeats, with 18 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from five games, away 3 from three. Seven of their eight games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 2-1 at home to Freiburg.
What to expect
The model gives RB Leipzig 64% and Augsburg 19%, with the draw at 18% and 2.6 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%) and 2-0 (6%). Over 2.5 is at 76%, both teams to score at 69%; a clean sheet for RB Leipzig is rated at 25%.
Our prediction
RB Leipzig vs Augsburg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
RB Leipzig 2+ goals
RB Leipzig score at least twice
73% estimated probability
The model gives 73% to RB Leipzig 2+ goals, with 2.6 goals expected: they have scored 22 in eight games, the second-best attack in the league.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Over 3.5, at least 4 goals in total, is at 56%: the model expects 4.0 goals and Augsburg have finished seven of eight games with at least three goals.
1 & both teams score
RB Leipzig win and both teams score
40% estimated probability
1 & both teams score (a RB Leipzig win and both teams score) is at 40%: the model gives 64% to a RB Leipzig win and 69% to both teams scoring.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.