La Liga · Matchday 11 · Sun 1 Nov · 21:00 (Italian time)
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: preview and prediction
Preview
This derby is one of the league’s most heartfelt games. Athletic Bilbao, 8th on 12 points and with the third-best defence in the league, come off a 4-0 win over Getafe. Real Sociedad are 5th on 19 with four wins in the last five, the latest 2-1 against Levante. On one side solidity, on the other form: it promises to be intense.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAthletic Bilbao | AwayReal Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th12 points | 5th19 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–3–3 | 6–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 12–91.3–1.0 per match | 19–181.9–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 8in 5 matches | 10in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 9 | 8 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 9 | 7 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 5 of 9 | 1 of 10 |
The analysis
Athletic Bilbao: five clean sheets in nine games
Athletic Bilbao have one of the firmest defences in the league: 9 goals conceded and five clean sheets in nine games. The 4-0 win over Getafe also gave their attack a jolt after a run of draws. At home they have taken 8 points from five games.
Real Sociedad: four wins in the last five
Real Sociedad are in great form: four wins in the last five and 19 goals scored. Their defence gives up chances, though, with 18 conceded and just one clean sheet in ten games. Eight of ten games have had at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Athletic Bilbao 47% and Real Sociedad 28%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%) and 2-0 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 54%, both teams to score at 56%; a clean sheet for Athletic Bilbao is rated at 30%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
77% estimated probability
Eight of Real Sociedad’s ten games have had at least three goals and the model expects 2.8: 77% goes to at least 2.
Came true
Both teams to score
Both teams score
56% estimated probability
Real Sociedad have just one clean sheet and score consistently: the model gives 56% to both teams scoring.
Came true
1X & Over 2.5
Athletic Bilbao avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick backs Athletic Bilbao to avoid defeat with at least 3 goals, at 37%, after the 4-0 win over Getafe.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.