La Liga · Matchday 11 · Sat 31 Oct · 16:15 (Italian time)
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo: preview and prediction
Preview
Rayo Vallecano v Celta Vigo is on Saturday at 16:15 (Italian time). Rayo Vallecano are 17th with 9 points, Celta Vigo ninth with 12. Rayo Vallecano lost 3-0 at home to Elche, while Celta Vigo drew 0-0 at home to Real Betis.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRayo Vallecano | AwayCelta Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th9 points | 9th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–4 | 2–6–2 |
| Goals for–against | 12–201.3–2.2 per match | 10–71.0–0.7 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 4 matches | 8in 6 matches |
| Points away | 2in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 9 | 3 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 9 | 4 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 9 | 5 of 10 |
The analysis
Rayo Vallecano: 20 goals conceded in nine games
Two wins, three draws and four defeats, 12 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home Rayo Vallecano have taken 7 points in four games, away 2 in five. They lost 3-0 at home to Elche. In eight of their nine games both teams scored and six finished with at least three goals; they have never kept a clean sheet.
Celta Vigo: five clean sheets in ten games
Two wins, six draws and two defeats, 10 goals scored and 7 conceded: the best defence in the league. At home Celta Vigo have taken 8 points in six games, away 4 in four. They drew 0-0 at home to Real Betis. Only three of their ten games have had at least three goals, and on five occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives Celta Vigo 39% and Rayo Vallecano 33%, with the draw at 28% and 1.3 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%) and 0-0 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 57%, both teams to score at 48%; a clean sheet for Celta Vigo is rated at 32%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 1-3
From 1 to 3 goals in total
69% estimated probability
The model gives 69% to Total goals 1-3, meaning from 1 to 3 goals in total. It rates Rayo Vallecano at 1.1 goals and Celta Vigo at 1.3, 2.4 in total.
Came true
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
57% estimated probability
The model gives 57% to Under 2.5, meaning at most 2 goals in total. Celta Vigo have conceded 7 goals in ten games and only three of their ten games have had at least three goals.
Did not come true
1X & Under 2.5
Rayo Vallecano avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
39% estimated probability
The model gives 39% to 1X & Under 2.5: Rayo Vallecano avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total. It gives 33% to a Rayo Vallecano win and 28% to the draw; Celta Vigo win at 39%.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.