La Liga · Matchday 11 · Sun 1 Nov · 14:00 (Italian time)
Getafe vs Sevilla: preview and prediction
Preview
Getafe have the worst attack in the league and come off a heavy 4-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao. They are 18th on 9 points, all taken at home, and host a Sevilla side 6th on 17 and confident after a 2-0 win over Osasuna. The visitors start ahead, but the hosts know how to hold their own in front of their fans.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeGetafe | AwaySevilla |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th9 points | 6th17 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–5 | 5–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 5–150.5–1.5 per match | 16–161.6–1.6 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 5 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Points away | 0in 5 matches | 8in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 10 | 7 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
The analysis
Getafe: all 9 points taken at home
Getafe live on home advantage: 9 points from five home games, none from five away. With 5 goals scored they have the worst attack in the league, and the 4-0 defeat at Athletic Bilbao was a hard blow.
Sevilla: 16 goals scored and 16 conceded in ten games
Sevilla are the picture of balance: 16 goals scored and the same number conceded, with five wins and 17 points. The 2-0 win over Osasuna restored confidence, and they have taken 8 points from five away games.
What to expect
The model gives Sevilla 44% and Getafe 29%, with the draw at 27% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%) and 0-0 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 57%, both teams to score at 48%; a clean sheet for Sevilla is rated at 36%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Getafe vs Sevilla · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Sevilla win or draw
71% estimated probability
The model gives 44% to Sevilla and 27% to the draw: 71% goes to the visitors avoiding defeat, against a Getafe side with 5 goals.
Did not come true
X2 & Under 3.5
Sevilla avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
The model expects 2.4 goals, with 1-1 the likeliest score at 13%: 55% goes to Sevilla avoiding defeat with at most 3 goals.
Did not come true
Sevilla clean sheet
Sevilla do not concede
36% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs a Sevilla clean sheet, at 36%. The worst attack in the league makes it possible: the visitors have done it three times already.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.