La Liga · Matchday 11 · Sun 1 Nov · 16:15 (Italian time)
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid: preview and prediction
Preview
Real Madrid arrive at Racing on the back of a 2-1 win at Barcelona, a result of real weight. Racing Santander, 14th on 11 points, have the most-beaten defence in the league, but all their points have come at home. The hosts will try to make life hard for the visitors, who are firm favourites.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRacing Santander | AwayReal Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th11 points | 3rd24 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–5 | 8–0–2 |
| Goals for–against | 15–261.5–2.6 per match | 25–102.5–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 11in 5 matches | 15in 5 matches |
| Points away | 0in 5 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 8 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 10 | 7 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 10 | 2 of 10 |
The analysis
Racing Santander: the most-beaten defence, 26 goals conceded
Racing Santander have two faces: 11 points from five home games and none from five away. With 26 goals conceded they have the most-beaten defence in the league and have never kept a clean sheet. The 2-1 win over Espanyol did give them some air.
Real Madrid: the second-best attack, fresh from a 2-1 win at Barcelona
Real Madrid are finding their stride: four wins in the last five, with the 2-1 win at Barcelona as a statement. With 25 goals scored they have the second-best attack in the league. They have taken 9 points from five away games.
What to expect
The model gives Real Madrid 74% and Racing Santander 11%, with the draw at 15% and 2.7 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 0-2 and 1-2 (9%) and 0-3 and 1-3 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 71%, both teams to score at 58%; a clean sheet for Real Madrid is rated at 38%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Racing Santander vs Real Madrid · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
2
Real Madrid win
74% estimated probability
The model gives 74% to a Real Madrid win and expects 2.7 goals from the visitors: Racing have conceded 26.
Came true
Real Madrid win by 2+ goals
Real Madrid win by at least two goals
54% estimated probability
The model expects 2.7 goals against 1 and gives 54% to a Real Madrid win by at least two, against the most-beaten defence in the league.
Came true
X2 & not both score
Real Madrid avoid defeat and at least one team fails to score
38% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs Real Madrid to avoid defeat with one team failing to score, at 38%: the same figure given to a visitors’ clean sheet.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.