La Liga · Matchday 11 · Sat 31 Oct · 21:00 (Italian time)
Barcelona vs Alavés: preview and prediction
Preview
Barcelona return after a 2-1 defeat by Real Madrid, their only loss of the season. Leaders on 27 points with 40 goals scored, they host an Alavés side 7th on 12 who have taken just 2 points away. The outcome looks fairly clear, with the hosts firm favourites.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBarcelona | AwayAlavés |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st27 points | 7th12 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 9–0–1 | 3–3–4 |
| Goals for–against | 40–114.0–1.1 per match | 14–111.4–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 5 matches | 10in 6 matches |
| Points away | 15in 5 matches | 2in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 9 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
The analysis
Barcelona: 40 goals scored in ten games
Barcelona have comfortably the best attack in the league: 40 goals in ten games and nine wins. The 2-1 defeat by Real Madrid is the only blemish on a season they have dominated so far. Home and away their record is outstanding, with 12 and 15 points.
Alavés: 2 points from four away games
Alavés are solid at home, with 10 points from six games, but struggle on the road: 2 points from four away games. The 1-1 draw with Málaga did not change the picture of a hard spell, with no wins in the last five.
What to expect
The model gives Barcelona 80% and Alavés 7%, with the draw at 13% and 2.8 expected goals to 0.7. The most likely scores are 2-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%) and 1-0 and 2-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 68%, both teams to score at 48%; a clean sheet for Barcelona is rated at 49%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Barcelona vs Alavés · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Barcelona 2+ goals
Barcelona score at least twice
77% estimated probability
Barcelona have scored 40 goals in ten games and the model expects 2.8 from them: 77% goes to at least two.
Came true
Total goals 2-4
From 2 to 4 goals in total
59% estimated probability
The model gives 59% to a game with 2 to 4 goals, the likeliest scenario in a game dominated by the hosts.
Did not come true
1 & Under 3.5
Barcelona win and at most 3 goals in total
39% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs a Barcelona win without too many goals, at most 3, at 39%: Alavés have conceded only 11 in ten games.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.