La Liga · Matchday 11 · Mon 2 Nov · 21:00 (Italian time)
Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna: preview and prediction
Preview
Deportivo La Coruña and Osasuna close the round level on 11 points, both needing to move up the table. Deportivo are 11th and come off a 1-0 defeat at Atlético Madrid; Osasuna are 13th and lost 2-0 at Sevilla. A balanced game can be expected, with the hosts slightly ahead.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeDeportivo La Coruña | AwayOsasuna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th11 points | 13th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–5–3 | 3–2–5 |
| Goals for–against | 13–131.3–1.3 per match | 10–201.0–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 5 matches | 8in 5 matches |
| Points away | 5in 5 matches | 3in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
The analysis
Deportivo La Coruña: five draws in ten games
Deportivo La Coruña are the draw specialists: five in ten games, with 13 goals scored and 13 conceded. Their troubles are recent, with no wins in the last five, and they have never kept a clean sheet. The 1-0 defeat at Atlético Madrid was no disgrace, however.
Osasuna: 3 points from five away games
Osasuna struggle away from home: 3 points from five games and 20 goals conceded in all. The 2-0 defeat at Sevilla confirmed the problem, with just one win in the last five.
What to expect
The model gives Deportivo La Coruña 52% and Osasuna 24%, with the draw at 24% and 1.7 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 51%, both teams to score at 52%; a clean sheet for Deportivo La Coruña is rated at 35%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Deportivo La Coruña vs Osasuna · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Deportivo La Coruña win or draw
76% estimated probability
The model gives 52% to Deportivo and 24% to the draw: 76% goes to the hosts avoiding defeat, against an Osasuna side who struggle away.
Came true
1X & Under 3.5
Deportivo La Coruña avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
53% estimated probability
The model expects 2.7 goals and only three of Deportivo’s ten games have had at least three: 53% goes to Deportivo avoiding defeat with at most 3 goals.
Came true
Deportivo La Coruña clean sheet
Deportivo La Coruña do not concede
35% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs Deportivo’s first clean sheet, at 35%. Osasuna have scored 10 goals in ten games.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.