La Liga · Matchday 11 · Sun 1 Nov · 18:30 (Italian time)
Elche vs Valencia: preview and prediction
Preview
Elche, 16th on 10 points, arrive in high spirits after a 3-0 win at Rayo Vallecano, but they have yet to win at home. Valencia, second from bottom on 6, lost 2-1 to Villarreal and are going through a hard spell. The need for points could make this a particularly hard-fought game.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeElche | AwayValencia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th10 points | 19th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–4–4 | 1–3–6 |
| Goals for–against | 14–171.4–1.7 per match | 7–170.7–1.7 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 4 matches | 2in 6 matches |
| Points away | 9in 6 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
The analysis
Elche: 9 points from six away games, 1 at home
Elche are a curious case: 9 points from six away games and just 1 from four at home. The 3-0 win at Rayo Vallecano confirms a good spell, with two wins and two draws in the last five. Now they need to get going in front of their own fans.
Valencia: seven goals scored in ten games
Valencia are second from bottom and the reason is clear: 7 goals scored in ten games. One win, three draws and six defeats, the latest 2-1 to Villarreal. Away from home they have done better, however, with 4 points from four games.
What to expect
The model gives Elche 49% and Valencia 26%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 and 2-0 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 52%, both teams to score at 51%; a clean sheet for Elche is rated at 35%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Elche vs Valencia · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Elche win or draw
74% estimated probability
The model gives 49% to Elche and 25% to the draw: 74% goes to the hosts avoiding defeat, against a Valencia side who score few.
Did not come true
1X & Over 1.5
Elche avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total
55% estimated probability
The model expects 2.6 goals, 1.6 of them from Elche: 55% goes to the hosts avoiding defeat with at least 2 goals in total.
Did not come true
Over 1.5 second half
At least 2 goals in the second half
42% estimated probability
The boldest pick looks to the second half: at least 2 goals after the break, at 42%. Six of Elche’s ten games have had at least three.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.