La Liga · Matchday 11 · Sat 31 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Real Betis vs Málaga: preview and prediction
Preview
Real Betis, 4th on 20 points, host a Málaga side bottom on 5 and still without a win. The hosts come off a 0-0 draw at Celta Vigo and have taken 12 points from five home games. The visitors, after a 1-1 draw with Alavés, have five draws and five defeats: the outcome leans firmly one way.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeReal Betis | AwayMálaga |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th20 points | 20th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–2–2 | 0–5–5 |
| Goals for–against | 16–141.6–1.4 per match | 7–190.7–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 5 matches | 3in 5 matches |
| Points away | 8in 5 matches | 2in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 5 of 10 | 1 of 10 |
The analysis
Real Betis: five clean sheets in ten games
Real Betis are one of the firmest sides in the league: five clean sheets and 20 points. They are strong at home, with 12 points from five games, and the 0-0 draw at Celta Vigo added another useful result.
Málaga: no wins in ten games
Málaga are bottom and still looking for a first win: five draws and five defeats, 7 goals scored and 19 conceded. The 1-1 draw at Alavés is a small sign, but away they have taken only 2 points from five games.
What to expect
The model gives Real Betis 69% and Málaga 11%, with the draw at 19% and 2.1 expected goals to 0.7. The most likely scores are 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (13%) and 2-1 and 3-0 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 52%, both teams to score at 44%; a clean sheet for Real Betis is rated at 50%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Real Betis vs Málaga · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
76% estimated probability
The model expects 2.8 goals in total and gives 76% to at least 2: Málaga have conceded 19 and struggle to keep the door shut.
Came true
1 & Over 1.5
Real Betis win and at least 2 goals in total
56% estimated probability
The model gives 69% to a Real Betis win and 56% to that result with at least 2 goals in total.
Came true
Over 1.5 first half
At least 2 goals in the first half
35% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs a fast start, with at least 2 goals in the first half, at 35%: Real Betis should take charge of the game early.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.