Premier League · Matchday 9 · Sat 31 Oct · 21:00 (Italian time)
Aston Villa vs Fulham: preview and prediction
Preview
Aston Villa come into this game buoyed by a 2-1 win over Manchester City, their third win in the last five. They are 9th on 11 points and host a Fulham side 15th on 8 who have won their last two, the latest 1-0 at Coventry City. Both are on the rise and the game looks balanced.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAston Villa | AwayFulham |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th11 points | 15th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–3 | 2–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 9–121.1–1.5 per match | 8–101.0–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 7in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
Aston Villa: 2-1 over Manchester City and 7 points away
Aston Villa have found momentum: three wins in the last five, with the 2-1 win over Manchester City their most prestigious result. Their home form needs work, though, with 4 points from four games. With 9 goals scored and 12 conceded, the balance is still negative.
Fulham: two wins in a row, three clean sheets
Fulham have picked themselves up with two straight wins, the latest 1-0 at Coventry City. They score few, 8 goals in eight games, but have kept three clean sheets.
What to expect
The model gives Aston Villa 43% and Fulham 30%, with the draw at 27% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%) and 0-1 and 2-1 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 55%, both teams to score at 50%; a clean sheet for Aston Villa is rated at 33%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Aston Villa vs Fulham · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
76% estimated probability
The model expects 2.5 goals in total and gives 76% to no more than 3: Fulham have scored only 8 in eight games.
Came true
X2
Fulham win or draw
57% estimated probability
The model gives 30% to Fulham and 27% to the draw: 57% goes to the visitors avoiding defeat, on the rise after two straight wins.
Came true
X2 & Over 1.5
Fulham avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total
39% estimated probability
The boldest pick backs Fulham to avoid defeat with at least 2 goals in total, at 39%. 71% goes to at least two goals, and form is on their side.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.