Premier League · Matchday 9 · Sat 31 Oct · 16:00 (Italian time)
Coventry City vs Sunderland: preview and prediction
Preview
Coventry City v Sunderland is on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time). Coventry City are 19th with 6 points, Sunderland 20th with 5. Coventry City lost 1-0 at home to Fulham, while Sunderland drew 0-0 at home to Leeds United.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCoventry City | AwaySunderland |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th6 points | 20th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–0–6 | 1–2–5 |
| Goals for–against | 6–150.8–1.9 per match | 6–140.8–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Coventry City: six goals scored in eight games
Two wins and six defeats, 6 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home Coventry City have taken 3 points in four games, away 3 in four. They lost 1-0 at home to Fulham. Four of their eight games have had at least three goals, but in two both teams scored.
Sunderland: four defeats in the last five games
One win, two draws and five defeats, 6 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home Sunderland have taken 4 points in four games, away 1 in four. In their last five they have one draw and four defeats. They drew 0-0 at home to Leeds United. Only two of their eight games have had at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Coventry City 37% and Sunderland 36%, with the draw at 27% and 1.2 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 and 0-1 (10%) and 0-0 (8%). Under 2.5 is at 55%, both teams to score at 50%; a clean sheet for Coventry City is rated at 29%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Coventry City vs Sunderland · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
76% estimated probability
The model gives 76% to Under 3.5, meaning at most 3 goals in total. It rates each side at 1.2 goals, 2.5 in total, and gives 55% to at most 2 goals.
Did not come true
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
55% estimated probability
The model gives 55% to Under 2.5, meaning at most 2 goals in total. Coventry City have scored 6 goals in eight games and Sunderland the same; the most likely score is 1-1, at 13%.
Did not come true
1X & Under 2.5
Coventry City avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
38% estimated probability
The model gives 38% to 1X & Under 2.5: Coventry City avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total. It gives 37% to a Coventry City win and 27% to the draw; Sunderland have taken 1 point from four away games.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.