Premier League · Matchday 9 · Sat 31 Oct · 16:00 (Italian time)
Manchester City vs Brighton: preview and prediction
Preview
Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion is on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time). Manchester City are top with 21 points and seven wins, Brighton & Hove Albion third with 16. Manchester City lost 2-1 away to Aston Villa, Brighton & Hove Albion 2-0 away to Liverpool.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeManchester City | AwayBrighton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st21 points | 3rd16 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 7–0–1 | 5–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 20–92.5–1.1 per match | 23–72.9–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 4 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 9in 4 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
The analysis
Manchester City: seven wins in eight games
Seven wins and one defeat, 20 goals scored and 9 conceded: the second-best attack in the league. At home Manchester City have taken 12 points in four games, away 9 in four. They lost 2-1 away to Aston Villa. Six of their eight games have had at least three goals, and on three occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
Brighton & Hove Albion: 23 goals scored in eight games
Five wins, one draw and two defeats, 23 goals scored and 7 conceded: the best attack in the league and the third-best defence. At home Brighton & Hove Albion have taken 10 points in four games, away 6 in four. They lost 2-0 away to Liverpool. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals, and on five occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives Manchester City 47% and Brighton & Hove Albion 31%, with the draw at 22% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 66%, both teams to score at 66%; a clean sheet for Manchester City is rated at 22%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Manchester City vs Brighton · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 2-5
From 2 to 5 goals in total
72% estimated probability
The model gives 72% to Total goals 2-5, meaning from 2 to 5 goals in total. It rates Manchester City at 1.9 goals and Brighton & Hove Albion at 1.5, 3.4 in total, and gives 85% to at least two goals overall.
Did not come true
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
56% estimated probability
The model gives 56% to Under 3.5, meaning at most 3 goals in total. The expected goals are 3.4 and the most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1, both at 9%.
Came true
1X & Under 3.5
Manchester City avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
The model gives 38% to 1X & Under 3.5: Manchester City avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total. It gives 47% to a Manchester City win and 22% to the draw; Brighton & Hove Albion win at 31%.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.