Premier League · Matchday 9 · Sun 1 Nov · 17:30 (Italian time)
Liverpool vs Arsenal: preview and prediction
Preview
This is Sunday’s big Premier League date. Liverpool, 4th on 15 points, come off a 2-0 win over Brighton & Hove Albion; Arsenal, 2nd on 21, have the best defence in the league and beat Everton 2-0. The model expects the fewest goals of the round: two careful sides, with details deciding a top-class game.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLiverpool | AwayArsenal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th15 points | 2nd21 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–3–1 | 7–0–1 |
| Goals for–against | 11–81.4–1.0 per match | 13–51.6–0.6 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 4 matches | 12in 4 matches |
| Points away | 10in 4 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
The analysis
Liverpool: 10 points away, 5 at home
Liverpool have found their rhythm: three wins in the last five and a 2-0 win over Brighton & Hove Albion. Curiously they have done better away, with 10 points from four games, than at home, with 5 from four. Four clean sheets confirm their solidity.
Arsenal: the best defence, five goals conceded
Arsenal have the best defence in the league: 5 goals conceded in eight games and five clean sheets. Seven wins and one defeat keep them right at the top. The 2-0 win over Everton confirmed a side that concedes very little.
What to expect
The model gives Arsenal 39% and Liverpool 33%, with the draw at 28% and 1.2 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%) and 0-0 (10%): at 2.3 expected goals in total it is the lowest-scoring game of the round. Under 2.5 is at 59%, both teams to score at 47%; a clean sheet for Arsenal is rated at 34%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Liverpool vs Arsenal · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Total goals 1-3
From 1 to 3 goals in total
70% estimated probability
The model expects 2.3 goals in total, the lowest figure of the round, and gives 70% to a game with 1 to 3 goals.
Came true
X2 & Under 3.5
Arsenal avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
54% estimated probability
Arsenal have lost just once and conceded 5: 54% goes to the visitors avoiding defeat with at most 3 goals.
Came true
2
Arsenal win
39% estimated probability
The boldest pick backs an Arsenal win, at 39% against 33% for Liverpool: the visitors have taken 9 points from four away games.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.