Premier League · Matchday 9 · Sat 31 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: preview and prediction
Preview
Tottenham Hotspur are on the rise: two straight wins, the latest 2-0 at Chelsea. They are 14th on 9 points and host a Crystal Palace side 17th on 7 who have the most-beaten defence in the league and come off a 2-0 defeat by Newcastle United. The hosts start as favourites and are looking for consistency.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeTottenham | AwayCrystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th9 points | 17th7 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–3 | 2–1–5 |
| Goals for–against | 8–101.0–1.2 per match | 9–191.1–2.4 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Points away | 5in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Tottenham Hotspur: two wins in a row, 2-0 at Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur have stepped up: two straight wins, with the 2-0 at Chelsea the confirmation. Their home form still needs work, though, with 4 points from four games. With 8 goals scored the attack is not explosive, but three clean sheets help.
Crystal Palace: the most-beaten defence, 19 goals conceded
Crystal Palace are in trouble: 19 goals conceded in eight games, the worst in the league, and two straight defeats. The 2-0 loss to Newcastle United has added to the worry. They have taken 4 points from four away games.
What to expect
The model gives Tottenham Hotspur 58% and Crystal Palace 20%, with the draw at 22% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-0 and 1-1 (11%) and 2-0 and 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 is at 54%, both teams to score at 53%; a clean sheet for Tottenham Hotspur is rated at 37%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals
Crystal Palace score at most once
74% estimated probability
Crystal Palace have scored 9 goals and the model expects 1 from them: 74% goes to the visitors scoring at most once.
Came true
1
Tottenham win
58% estimated probability
The model gives 58% to a Tottenham Hotspur win, after two straight successes and against the most-beaten defence in the league.
Came true
1 & Under 3.5
Tottenham win and at most 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick backs a Tottenham Hotspur win with at most 3 goals, at 37%: the likeliest scores are 1-0 and 1-1.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.