Premier League · Matchday 9 · Sat 31 Oct · 16:00 (Italian time)
Bournemouth vs Leeds: preview and prediction
Preview
AFC Bournemouth v Leeds United is on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time). AFC Bournemouth are 13th with 9 points, Leeds United seventh with 11. AFC Bournemouth won 3-0 away at Manchester United, while Leeds United drew 0-0 away at Sunderland.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBournemouth | AwayLeeds |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th9 points | 7th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–3 | 2–5–1 |
| Goals for–against | 12–131.5–1.6 per match | 9–61.1–0.8 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 4 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
AFC Bournemouth: two wins in the last five games
Two wins, three draws and three defeats, 12 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home AFC Bournemouth have taken 5 points in four games, away 4 in four. In their last five they have two wins, one draw and two defeats. They won 3-0 away at Manchester United. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals, and in five both teams scored.
Leeds United: six goals conceded in eight games
Two wins, five draws and one defeat, 9 goals scored and 6 conceded: the second-best defence in the league. At home Leeds United have taken 6 points in four games, away 5 in four. They drew 0-0 away at Sunderland. Only two of their eight games have had at least three goals, and on three occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives AFC Bournemouth 40% and Leeds United 33%, with the draw at 27% and 1.3 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%) and 2-1 (8%). Under 2.5 is at 55%, both teams to score at 50%; a clean sheet for AFC Bournemouth is rated at 31%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Bournemouth vs Leeds · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 second half
At least one goal in the second half
75% estimated probability
The model gives 75% to Over 0.5 second half, meaning at least one goal in the second half. It rates AFC Bournemouth at 1.3 goals and Leeds United at 1.2, 2.5 in total; 71% goes to at least two goals overall.
Came true
Total goals 2-4
From 2 to 4 goals in total
60% estimated probability
The model gives 60% to Total goals 2-4, meaning from 2 to 4 goals in total. It gives 55% to at most 2 goals and 45% to at least 3; Leeds United have conceded only 6 goals in eight games.
Came true
Bournemouth 2+ goals
Bournemouth score at least twice
38% estimated probability
The model gives 38% to AFC Bournemouth 2+ goals: AFC Bournemouth score at least two goals. It rates them at 1.3 goals; they have scored 12 in eight games, against a Leeds United side who have conceded 6.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.