Premier League · Matchday 9 · Sat 31 Oct · 16:00 (Italian time)
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: preview and prediction
Preview
Brentford v Nottingham Forest is on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time). Brentford are sixth with 11 points, Nottingham Forest 18th with 6. Brentford drew 1-1 away at Hull City, while Nottingham Forest drew 1-1 away at Ipswich Town.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBrentford | AwayNottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th11 points | 18th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–5–1 | 1–3–4 |
| Goals for–against | 14–91.8–1.1 per match | 6–100.8–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 4 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Brentford: five draws in eight games
Two wins, five draws and one defeat, 14 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home Brentford have taken 7 points in four games, away 4 in four. They drew 1-1 away at Hull City. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals, and in six both teams scored.
Nottingham Forest: 1 point from four home games
One win, three draws and four defeats, 6 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home Nottingham Forest have taken 1 point in four games, away 5 in four. They drew 1-1 away at Ipswich Town. Three of their eight games have had at least three goals, and in four both teams scored.
What to expect
The model gives Brentford 53% and Nottingham Forest 22%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-0 and 1-1 (12%) and 2-0 and 2-1 (10%). Under 2.5 is at 53%, both teams to score at 49%; a clean sheet for Brentford is rated at 38%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Nottingham Forest under 1.5 goals
Nottingham Forest score at most once
75% estimated probability
The model gives 75% to Nottingham Forest under 1.5 goals: Nottingham Forest score at most one goal. It rates them at 1.0 goals, and they have scored 6 in eight games, while it gives Brentford a 38% chance of a clean sheet.
Came true
1
Brentford win
53% estimated probability
The model gives 53% to 1, meaning a Brentford win. It gives 25% to the draw and 22% to a Nottingham Forest win; Brentford have taken 7 points at home.
Came true
1X & not both score
Brentford avoid defeat and at least one team fails to score
38% estimated probability
The model gives 38% to 1X & not both score: Brentford avoid defeat and at least one team fails to score. Nottingham Forest have scored 6 goals in eight games and the model gives Brentford a 38% chance of a clean sheet.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.