Premier League · Matchday 9 · Sat 31 Oct · 16:00 (Italian time)
Hull City vs Ipswich Town: preview and prediction
Preview
Hull City v Ipswich Town is on Saturday at 16:00 (Italian time). Hull City are tenth with 10 points, Ipswich Town 12th, also with 10. Hull City drew 1-1 at home to Brentford, Ipswich Town 1-1 at home to Nottingham Forest.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeHull City | AwayIpswich Town |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th10 points | 12th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–4–2 | 3–1–4 |
| Goals for–against | 9–81.1–1.0 per match | 12–161.5–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 8 | 0 of 8 |
The analysis
Hull City: three clean sheets in eight games
Two wins, four draws and two defeats, 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home Hull City have taken 6 points in four games, away 4 in four. They have not won in their last five: three draws and two defeats. They drew 1-1 at home to Brentford and on three occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
Ipswich Town: 16 goals conceded in eight games
Three wins, one draw and four defeats, 12 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home Ipswich Town have taken 7 points in four games, away 3 in four. They drew 1-1 at home to Nottingham Forest. Five of their eight games have had at least three goals and in six both teams scored; they have never kept a clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives Hull City 44% and Ipswich Town 31%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 and 2-1 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 54%, both teams to score at 57%; a clean sheet for Hull City is rated at 28%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Hull City vs Ipswich Town · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
77% estimated probability
The model gives 77% to Over 1.5, meaning at least 2 goals in total. It rates Hull City at 1.6 goals and Ipswich Town at 1.3, 2.8 in total, and gives 54% to at least 3 goals.
Came true
Both teams to score
Both teams score
57% estimated probability
The model gives 57% to Both teams to score, meaning both teams score. Both teams scored in six of the eight games played by Ipswich Town and in four played by Hull City.
Came true
X2 & both teams score
Ipswich Town avoid defeat and both teams score
35% estimated probability
The model gives 35% to X2 & both teams score: Ipswich Town avoid defeat and both teams score. It gives 31% to an Ipswich Town win and 25% to the draw; Ipswich Town have scored 12 goals in eight games.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.