Premier League · Matchday 9 · Mon 2 Nov · 21:00 (Italian time)
Newcastle vs Everton: preview and prediction
Preview
Newcastle United close the Premier League round on the back of a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace. They are 8th on 11 points and host an Everton side 11th on 10, after a 2-0 defeat at Arsenal. The two are close in the table and the model foresees a balanced game, with the hosts slightly ahead.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeNewcastle | AwayEverton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th11 points | 11th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–3 | 2–4–2 |
| Goals for–against | 12–141.5–1.8 per match | 8–91.0–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 4 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
Newcastle United: 6 points from four away games
Newcastle United are up and down: three wins, two draws and three defeats, with the 2-0 win at Crystal Palace the latest positive sign. At home they have taken 5 points from four games and must find consistency in front of their fans.
Everton: four draws in eight games
Everton are a cautious side: 8 goals scored and 9 conceded, with four draws and three clean sheets. The 2-0 defeat at Arsenal is no surprise, but away from home they have taken only 3 points from four games.
What to expect
The model gives Newcastle United 42% and Everton 32%, with the draw at 26% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 50%, both teams to score at 54%; a clean sheet for Newcastle United is rated at 29%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Newcastle vs Everton · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
75% estimated probability
The model expects 2.7 goals in total and gives 75% to at least 2: five of Newcastle United’s eight games have had at least three.
Did not come true
Both teams to score
Both teams score
54% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in five of Newcastle United’s eight games: the model gives 54% to both teams scoring.
Did not come true
1X & both teams score
Newcastle avoid defeat and both teams score
39% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs Newcastle United to avoid defeat with goals at both ends, at 39%. Everton have taken 3 points from four away games.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.