Serie A · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 18:00 CEST
Bologna vs Inter: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
The leaders come to the Dall’Ara. Inter are top on 16 points, level with Lazio but ahead on goal difference, and have the best attack in the league with 18 goals; Bologna are fourteenth and only won their first game of the season last weekend, 2-1 in Lecce.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBologna | AwayInter |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th5 points | 1st16 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–3 | 5–1–0 |
| Goals for–against | 5–70.8–1.2 per match | 18–83.0–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 3 matches | 12in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 4in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
The analysis
Bologna: one win and five goals in six games
Only Parma have scored fewer than Bologna, stuck on 5 goals. They have never kept a clean sheet and are still without a home win: two draws and a defeat. The 2-1 win in Lecce brought a first victory, but now they lose Orsolini, out until the second half of November; Holm is also missing.
Inter: four out of four at San Siro
Five wins and a draw, 18 goals scored: Inter have won all four home games and taken 4 points from two away trips, including the 2-2 with Roma. Five of their six games have produced at least three goals. They do concede: 8 goals against and two clean sheets. Jones is out, Stones is a doubt.
What to expect
The model gives Inter 58% and Bologna 20%, with 1.9 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), but the next three all go Inter’s way: 0-1, 1-2 and 0-2, at 10%. Bologna have always conceded, and Inter score at least twice in 56% of cases. For Inter the most likely scorer is Lautaro (34%), then Thuram (30%).
Our prediction
Bologna vs Inter · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Inter win or draw
80% estimated probability
Inter are unbeaten, with five wins in six games, and Bologna are still without a home win: two draws and a defeat.
Inter 2+ goals
Inter score at least twice
56% estimated probability
Bologna have never kept a clean sheet and Inter score three goals a game: 18 in six rounds, the best attack in the league.
2 & Over 2.5
Inter win and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
Five of Inter’s six games have ended with at least three goals. If they win at the Dall’Ara too, it will probably happen again.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Bologna clean sheet
- 15%
- Inter clean sheet
- 36%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.