Serie A · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 15:00 CEST
Venezia vs Napoli: preview and prediction
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Napoli visit the Penzo, and the two sides are in very different places. Venezia are bottom, the only Serie A team still without a point, having conceded 16 goals in six games; Napoli, eighth on 10 points, beat Frosinone 3-0 and have taken seven points from the last three rounds after two straight defeats.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeVenezia | AwayNapoli |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th0 points | 8th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–0–6 | 3–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 5–160.8–2.7 per match | 10–61.7–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 0in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Points away | 0in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
The analysis
Venezia: no points and the leakiest defence
Six defeats in six games, 5 goals scored and 16 conceded: Venezia have never kept a clean sheet and have let in at least two goals in every match. They have lost all three home games; last time out they went down 3-1 in Bergamo. The injury list is long: Franjić, Correia, Busio, Sverko and Adorante are all out.
Napoli: three clean sheets in six games
After two defeats in a row Napoli are back on track, up to last weekend’s 3-0 win over Frosinone. The defence has kept three clean sheets in six games and conceded 6 goals; away from home Napoli have taken 4 points from three games. Buongiorno, Vergara, Olivera and Alisson Santos are out, and Anguissa is a major doubt.
What to expect
The model gives Napoli a 60% chance of winning and Venezia 18%. Expected goals are 2.0 to 1.0 and four scores are level at 10%: 0-1, 1-1, 0-2 and 1-2. Venezia score little, but both teams have scored in three of their six games; Napoli’s clean sheet is rated at 37%. De Bruyne is the Napoli player most likely to score, at 37%, ahead of Højlund (34%).
Our prediction
Venezia vs Napoli · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
79% estimated probability
Venezia have conceded at least two goals in all six matches. It only has to happen again, or each side has to score once.
2
Napoli win
60% estimated probability
Venezia have lost every game, including all three at home, conceding 16 goals. Napoli come off a 3-0 win over Frosinone and have kept a clean sheet in half their games.
Kevin De Bruyne to score
Kevin De Bruyne scores at least once
37% estimated probability
He is the Napoli player most likely to score, and he faces the leakiest defence in Serie A, which has conceded at least twice in every match.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Venezia clean sheet
- 14%
- Napoli clean sheet
- 37%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.