Serie A · Matchday 7 · Mon 19 Oct · 20:45 CEST
Parma vs Torino: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Monday at 20:45 brings the last game of the round: Parma, eighteenth on 4 points, host Torino, twelfth on 7. Parma come off a 3-0 defeat to Inter at San Siro, Torino off a 2-1 win over Udinese, their second of the season.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeParma | AwayTorino |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th4 points | 12th7 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–4 | 2–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 4–100.7–1.7 per match | 7–91.2–1.5 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 0in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Parma: the weakest attack in the league
Four goals in six games: no team has scored fewer. Parma have lost four times, never kept a clean sheet and conceded 10 goals; all 4 of their points have come at home, where they have won once and drawn once. Elphege, Almqvist and Nicolussi Caviglia are out.
Torino: better on the road
Two wins, one draw and three defeats, 7 goals scored and 9 conceded. Away from home Torino have taken 4 points from three games, one more than at home. They have never kept a clean sheet and both teams have scored in five of their six games. Ilkhan is out, Fortini is a doubt.
What to expect
The model has Torino slightly ahead, 40% to 33%, with 1.3 expected goals to 1.2: after Juventus v Lazio, it is the Serie A game with the fewest expected goals. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 1-0 (10%) and 0-0 (9%), and Under 2.5 is at 56%. For Torino the most likely scorers are Adams and Kulenović, at 27%.
Our prediction
Parma vs Torino · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
77% estimated probability
Parma have scored 4 goals in six games and their matches have produced 14 goals in total. Four goals in this one would be a lot.
X2 & Under 3.5
Torino avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
51% estimated probability
Torino have taken 4 points from three away games and come off a 2-1 win over Udinese; Parma have lost four times. To Torino avoiding defeat we add at most three goals.
2
Torino win
40% estimated probability
Parma have the weakest attack in the league and the model gives Torino 40% against Parma’s 33%. An away win is the boldest pick.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Parma clean sheet
- 27%
- Torino clean sheet
- 31%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.