Serie A · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 15:00 CEST
Fiorentina vs Como: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Fiorentina are second from bottom and still without a win at the Franchi: one point from three games. Como, seventh on 11 points, come off a 0-0 with Roma, their first clean sheet of the season, and have taken 7 points from four away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFiorentina | AwayComo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th4 points | 7th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–4 | 3–2–1 |
| Goals for–against | 7–141.2–2.3 per match | 9–61.5–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 4in 2 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Fiorentina: no clean sheets yet
Four defeats in six games and 14 goals conceded, the third-leakiest defence in the league. Fiorentina have never kept a clean sheet and five of their six games have produced at least three goals. Their only win came away from home; the latest defeat was 2-1 in Genoa. Parisi is out, Atta is a major doubt.
Como: rarely beaten on the road
Three wins, two draws and only one defeat, at Frosinone. Como score 1.5 goals a game and concede one; away from home they have won in Naples and Genoa and drawn in Udine. Kean is a doubt with a shin problem.
What to expect
The model gives Como 50% and Fiorentina 26%, with 1.7 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), followed by 0-1 and 1-2 (10%). Fiorentina have always conceded and five of their six games have gone over 2.5 goals: both teams to score at 56%, Over 2.5 at 55%. Douvikas and Diao are the most likely scorers, at 31%.
Our prediction
Fiorentina vs Como · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Como win or draw
74% estimated probability
Fiorentina have taken one point from three home games and Como have taken 7 from four away, losing only at Frosinone.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
56% estimated probability
Fiorentina have never kept a clean sheet and Como have done it only once, last weekend against Roma. Both teams have scored in four of each side’s six games.
X2 & Over 2.5
Como avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
39% estimated probability
Five of Fiorentina’s six games have gone over 2.5 goals. To Como avoiding defeat we add at least three goals in total.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Fiorentina clean sheet
- 18%
- Como clean sheet
- 31%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.