Serie A · Matchday 7 · Mon 19 Oct · 18:30 CEST
Monza vs Cagliari: preview and prediction
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The round ends on Monday with two games. At 18:30 Monza, sixteenth on 4 points, host Cagliari, fourth on 13 and perfect away from home: three wins out of three. Cagliari will be without coach Pisacane, suspended.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMonza | AwayCagliari |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th4 points | 4th13 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–4 | 4–1–1 |
| Goals for–against | 9–151.5–2.5 per match | 6–31.0–0.5 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 2 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Points away | 1in 4 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
The analysis
Monza: always score, always concede
Both teams have scored in all six Monza games: they always score, but always concede, 15 goals in total, the second-leakiest defence after Venezia. Five of six games have produced at least three goals. At home they have taken 3 points from two games. Lucchesi is suspended and Ziółkowski, Touré and Pessina are out; Ciurria is close to a return.
Cagliari: four narrow wins
Four wins, all by a single goal, one draw and one defeat: Cagliari score little, 6 goals, but have conceded only 3, like Roma. Just one of their games has gone over 2.5 goals and three have ended without conceding. Last time out they held Juventus 1-1. Felici and Idrissi are out.
What to expect
The model sees Cagliari slightly ahead, 40% to 33%, with 1.4 expected goals to 1.2; the most likely score is 1-1 (13%), then 0-1 (11%). The two teams tell opposite stories: in Monza’s games both always score, in Cagliari’s there are rarely three goals. The model sits in the middle, with Over 2.5 at 47% and both teams to score at 52%. The most likely scorer is Maldini (37%).
Our prediction
Monza vs Cagliari · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
75% estimated probability
Cagliari have gone over 2.5 goals only once in six games and conceded 3 in total. Four goals here would be an exception to their season.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
53% estimated probability
Cagliari win narrowly and concede very little: 6 goals scored, 3 conceded. Monza always score, but one goal each still keeps it under three.
X2 & Under 2.5
Cagliari avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
38% estimated probability
Cagliari have won all three away games, and they do it with few goals. We ask for them to avoid defeat in a game with at most two goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Monza clean sheet
- 26%
- Cagliari clean sheet
- 30%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.