Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sat 7 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Cagliari vs Frosinone: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
At the Unipol Domus on Saturday at 15:00 (Italian time) two sides in opposite moods meet. Cagliari, 12th on 13 points, have not won any of their last five games and come off a 2-1 defeat at Lazio; Frosinone, 6th on 20, have scored 24 goals in ten games and beat Torino 2-0. Fadera, Idrissi, Nzola and Felici are out for Cagliari, Raimondo for Frosinone.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCagliari | AwayFrosinone |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th13 points | 6th20 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–5 | 6–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 9–150.9–1.5 per match | 24–142.4–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 15in 6 matches |
| Points away | 9in 6 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
The analysis
Cagliari: 4 points from four home games
Cagliari have four wins, a draw and five defeats, with 9 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 4 points from four games, away 9 from six. Four of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-1 at Lazio. Fadera, Idrissi, Nzola and Felici are out, Gagliardini, Oberta and Deiola doubtful.
Frosinone: 24 goals in ten games
Frosinone have six wins, two draws and two defeats, with 24 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have taken 15 points from six games, away 5 from four. Six of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they beat Torino 2-0, and in their last five games they have won three. Raimondo is out, Grillitsch doubtful and Bracaglia one booking from a ban.
What to expect
The model gives Frosinone 46% and Cagliari 29%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 and 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 54%, both teams to score at 57%; a clean sheet for Frosinone is rated at 29%. Maldini has a 38% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Calò follows at 29%.
Our prediction
Cagliari vs Frosinone · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
78% estimated probability
Over 1.5, at least 2 goals in total, is rated at 78%: the model expects 2.8 goals and Frosinone have scored 24 in ten games.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
57% estimated probability
Both teams to score is at 57%: the model expects 1.2 goals from Cagliari and 1.6 from Frosinone, and Cagliari have conceded 15 in ten games.
X2 & Over 2.5
Frosinone avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
X2 & Over 2.5 (Frosinone avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total) is at 37%: the model gives Frosinone 46% and the draw 25%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Cagliari clean sheet
- 20%
- Frosinone clean sheet
- 29%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.