Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun 8 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Fiorentina vs Juventus: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Fiorentina, 16th on 8 points, host Juventus, 7th on 17, at the Franchi on Sunday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 4-2 win at Sassuolo, the visitors a 2-0 home win over Napoli. Parisi and Pongračić are out for Fiorentina, with Atta and Ranieri doubtful; Yildiz, Thuram, Locatelli, Conceição and Nico González are out for Juventus, with McKennie doubtful.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFiorentina | AwayJuventus |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th8 points | 7th17 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–6 | 5–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 15–231.5–2.3 per match | 13–101.3–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 5 matches | 10in 5 matches |
| Points away | 6in 5 matches | 7in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 9 of 10 | 2 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
The analysis
Fiorentina: no clean sheets in ten games
Fiorentina have two wins, two draws and six defeats, with 15 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have taken 2 points from five games, away 6 from five. Nine of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in eight; they have no clean sheets. Last time out they won 4-2 at Sassuolo, and in their last five games they have won one, drawn one and lost three.
Juventus: 7 points from five away games
Juventus have five wins, two draws and three defeats, with 13 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from five games, away 7 from five. Two of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three; they have five clean sheets. Last time out they beat Napoli 2-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two.
What to expect
The model gives Juventus 46% and Fiorentina 29%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%) and 0-2 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 53%, both teams to score at 56%; a clean sheet for Juventus is rated at 30%. Kolo Muani has a 26% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Mastantuono follows at 23%.
Our prediction
Fiorentina vs Juventus · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
77% estimated probability
Over 1.5, at least 2 goals in total, is rated at 77%: the model expects 2.8 goals and Fiorentina have conceded 23 in ten games.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
56% estimated probability
Both teams to score is at 56%: both teams have scored in eight of Fiorentina’s ten games and in three of Juventus’s.
X2 & both teams score
Juventus avoid defeat and both teams score
41% estimated probability
X2 & both teams score (Juventus avoid defeat and both teams score) is at 41%: the boldest pick, with 46% for a Juventus win and 25% for the draw.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Fiorentina clean sheet
- 20%
- Juventus clean sheet
- 30%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.