Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun 8 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Genoa vs Milan: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
On Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time) at Marassi, Genoa, 11th on 13 points, host Milan, 5th on 21. The hosts come off a 2-1 win at Lecce, the visitors a 3-1 home win over Inter. Venturino is out for Genoa, with Havel doubtful; Loftus-Cheek, Tomori, Gabbia, Chukwueze, Saelemaekers and Terracciano are out for Milan.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeGenoa | AwayMilan |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th13 points | 5th21 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–5 | 6–3–1 |
| Goals for–against | 10–141.0–1.4 per match | 21–122.1–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 6 matches | 12in 5 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 10 | 7 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
The analysis
Genoa: 10 points from six home games
Genoa have four wins, one draw and five defeats, with 10 goals scored and 14 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from six games, away 3 from four. Four of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they won 2-1 at Lecce, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one. Venturino is out, Havel doubtful.
Milan: both teams scored in seven of ten games
Milan have six wins, three draws and one defeat, with 21 goals scored and 12 conceded. At home they have taken 12 points from five games, away 9 from five. Six of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they beat Inter 3-1 at home. Loftus-Cheek, Tomori, Gabbia, Chukwueze, Saelemaekers and Terracciano are out.
What to expect
The model gives Milan 51% and Genoa 24%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 51%, both teams to score at 51%; a clean sheet for Milan is rated at 36%. Osmajić has a 27% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Rabiot follows at 26%.
Our prediction
Genoa vs Milan · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Milan win or draw
76% estimated probability
X2, Milan win or draw, is rated at 76%: the model gives 51% to a win for the visitors and 25% to the draw.
X2 & Under 3.5
Milan avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
54% estimated probability
X2 & Under 3.5 (Milan avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total) is at 54%: the model expects 2.6 goals, 1.6 of them from the visitors.
Milan clean sheet
Milan do not concede
36% estimated probability
Milan clean sheet, Milan do not concede, is at 36%: the boldest pick, with 1.0 goals expected for Genoa, who have scored 10 goals in ten games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Genoa clean sheet
- 20%
- Milan clean sheet
- 36%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.