Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun 8 Nov · 18:00 (Italian time)
Inter vs Como: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Inter, second on 25 points and with the second-best attack in the league, host Como, 4th on 23, at San Siro on Sunday at 18:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 3-1 defeat at Milan, the visitors a 1-0 home win over Venezia. Lautaro Martínez and Luis Henrique are out for Inter, with Pavard, Jones and Stones doubtful; Kean, Diao, Addai and Rodriguez are out for Como, with Chalobah doubtful.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeInter | AwayComo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd25 points | 4th23 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 8–1–1 | 7–2–1 |
| Goals for–against | 26–132.6–1.3 per match | 18–81.8–0.8 per match |
| Points at home | 15in 5 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 10in 5 matches | 13in 6 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 8 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
The analysis
Inter: 15 points from five home games
Inter have eight wins, one draw and one defeat, with 26 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have taken 15 points from five games, away 10 from five. Eight of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 3-1 at Milan, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one.
Como: 13 points from six away games
Como have seven wins, two draws and one defeat, with 18 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from four games, away 13 from six. Five of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they beat Venezia 1-0 at home, and in their last five games they have won four and drawn one.
What to expect
The model gives Inter 48% and Como 28%, with the draw at 24% and 1.7 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 and 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 55%, both teams to score at 57%; a clean sheet for Inter is rated at 30%. Thuram has a 28% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Douvikas follows at 27%.
Our prediction
Inter vs Como · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 0.5 first half
At least one goal in the first half
73% estimated probability
Over 0.5 first half, at least one goal in the first half, is rated at 73%: the model expects 2.9 goals in total, 1.7 of them from Inter.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
Over 2.5, at least 3 goals in total, is at 55%: the model expects 2.9 goals and Inter have finished eight of ten games with at least three goals.
1X & Over 2.5
Inter avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
1X & Over 2.5 (Inter avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total) is at 38%: the boldest pick, with 48% for an Inter win and 24% for the draw.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Inter clean sheet
- 30%
- Como clean sheet
- 19%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.