Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun 8 Nov · 12:30 (Italian time)
Napoli vs Lazio: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
On Sunday at 12:30 (Italian time) at the Maradona, Napoli, 8th on 14 points, host leaders Lazio, on 28. The hosts come off a 2-0 defeat at Juventus, the visitors a 2-1 home win over Cagliari, and Lazio have won their last five games. Lobotka, Neres, Buongiorno and Spinazzola are out for Napoli, with De Bruyne and Di Lorenzo doubtful; Gudmundsson and Zaccagni are out for Lazio.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeNapoli | AwayLazio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th14 points | 1st28 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–4 | 9–1–0 |
| Goals for–against | 17–131.7–1.3 per match | 24–82.4–0.8 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 4 matches | 13in 5 matches |
| Points away | 7in 6 matches | 15in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 10 | 7 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
The analysis
Napoli: 7 points from four home games
Napoli have four wins, two draws and four defeats, with 17 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from four games, away 7 from six. Five of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have three clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-0 at Juventus, and in their last five games they have won two, drawn one and lost two.
Lazio: 15 points from five away games
Lazio have nine wins and one draw, with no defeats, 24 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have taken 13 points from five games, away 15 from five. Seven of their ten games have had more than two goals and both teams have scored in six; they have four clean sheets. Last time out they beat Cagliari 2-1 at home, and they have won all of their last five games. Gudmundsson and Zaccagni are out.
What to expect
The model gives Lazio 39% and Napoli 35%, with the draw at 25% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 0-1 and 1-2 (9%) and 1-0 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 53%, both teams to score at 56%; a clean sheet for Lazio is rated at 26%. Noslin has a 23% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Højlund follows at 23%.
Our prediction
Napoli vs Lazio · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Napoli to score
At least one goal for Napoli
74% estimated probability
Napoli to score, at least one goal for Napoli, is rated at 74%: the model expects 1.3 goals from the hosts, who have scored 17 in ten games.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
56% estimated probability
Both teams to score is at 56%: the model expects 1.3 goals for Napoli and 1.4 for Lazio; both teams have scored in five of Napoli’s games and in six of Lazio’s.
1X & both teams score
Napoli avoid defeat and both teams score
37% estimated probability
1X & both teams score (Napoli avoid defeat and both teams score) is at 37%: the boldest pick, with 35% for a Napoli win and 25% for the draw.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Napoli clean sheet
- 24%
- Lazio clean sheet
- 26%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.