Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sat 7 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Torino vs Lecce: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
On Saturday at 15:00 (Italian time) at the Olimpico Grande Torino, Torino, 10th on 13 points, host Lecce, 14th on 9. Torino come off a 2-0 defeat at Frosinone, Lecce a 2-1 home defeat by Genoa. Israel, Ricardo Rodríguez, Mandragora and Cacciamani are out for Torino, Geubbels, Monteiro, Pierotti and Ilic for Lecce.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeTorino | AwayLecce |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th13 points | 14th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–1–5 | 3–0–7 |
| Goals for–against | 14–161.4–1.6 per match | 11–211.1–2.1 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 5 matches | 3in 5 matches |
| Points away | 7in 5 matches | 6in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 10 | 7 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 10 | 4 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 10 | 2 of 10 |
The analysis
Torino: both teams scored in seven of ten games
Torino have four wins, a draw and five defeats, with 14 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from five games, away 7 from five. Seven of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven. Last time out they lost 2-0 at Frosinone, and in their last five games they have won three and lost two. Israel, Ricardo Rodríguez, Mandragora and Cacciamani are out, Fortini doubtful.
Lecce: 21 goals conceded in ten games
Lecce have three wins and seven defeats, with 11 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from five games, away 6 from five. Seven of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have two clean sheets. Last time out they lost 2-1 at home to Genoa, and in their last five games they have won one and lost four. Geubbels, Monteiro, Pierotti and Ilic are out, Berisha and Coulibaly doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Torino 55% and Lecce 22%, with the draw at 23% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 1-0 and 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 56%, both teams to score at 56%; a clean sheet for Torino is rated at 34%. Adams has a 38% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Simeone follows at 28%.
Our prediction
Torino vs Lecce · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Torino win or draw
78% estimated probability
1X, Torino win or draw, is rated at 78%: the model gives 55% to a Torino win and 23% to the draw, and Lecce have lost seven of ten games.
1
Torino win
55% estimated probability
A Torino win is at 55%: the model expects 1.9 goals from the hosts against 1.1 for Lecce, who have conceded 21 in ten games.
1 & Over 2.5
Torino win and at least 3 goals in total
36% estimated probability
1 & Over 2.5 (a Torino win and at least 3 goals in total) is at 36%: the model expects 2.9 goals and Torino have finished seven of ten games with at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Torino clean sheet
- 34%
- Lecce clean sheet
- 16%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.