Serie A · Matchday 7 · Fri 16 Oct · 20:45 CEST
Frosinone vs Sassuolo: preview and prediction
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Frosinone and Sassuolo open matchday 7 on Friday at 20:45. Frosinone are ninth on 10 points and come off a 3-0 defeat in Naples that ended a four-match unbeaten run; Sassuolo, eleventh on 8, have just held Milan to a 1-1 draw. Frosinone get good news up front: Raimondo is set to return to the starting line-up.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeFrosinone | AwaySassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th10 points | 11th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–1–2 | 2–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 9–71.5–1.2 per match | 10–101.7–1.7 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 3 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Frosinone: hard to beat at home
Ten points from six games, six of them at the Stirpe, where they have won two of three. The defence has conceded 7 goals and kept two clean sheets; on the road they have one win, one draw and one defeat. With Grillitsch and Birligea out until early November, the attack gets Raimondo back, 4 goals before his Achilles problem, alongside Kvernadze, who has 3.
Sassuolo: six matches, both teams scored in all six
Both teams have scored in every Sassuolo match, and five of six have produced at least three goals: 10 scored, 10 conceded, no clean sheets. They have taken 7 points at home and only one from three away games. Leysen and Idzes are missing in defence, I. Koné in midfield.
What to expect
The model has Frosinone ahead, 45% to 31%, with 1.6 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), ahead of 2-1 and 1-0 (9%). Both teams have scored in every Sassuolo match but in only two of Frosinone’s six: both teams to score is rated at 58%, Over 2.5 at 56%. Raimondo has a 41% chance of scoring, the highest of the Serie A round.
Our prediction
Frosinone vs Sassuolo · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
79% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in every Sassuolo match, so each of them has had at least two goals. The model expects 2.9 in total.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
58% estimated probability
Sassuolo always score and have never kept a clean sheet; Frosinone get back Raimondo, who has scored 4 of their 9 goals.
1X & Over 2.5
Frosinone avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
36% estimated probability
Frosinone have lost only once at home and Sassuolo have taken one point from three away games. To Frosinone avoiding defeat we add at least three goals, as in five of Sassuolo’s six matches.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Frosinone clean sheet
- 27%
- Sassuolo clean sheet
- 20%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.