Serie A · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 20:45 CEST
Juventus vs Lazio: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Sunday night’s headline game is Juventus v Lazio. Lazio are second on 16 points, unbeaten and with a perfect away record; Juventus are sixth on 11, come off a 1-1 in Cagliari and will be without Spalletti on the bench through suspension, plus a long list of absentees.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeJuventus | AwayLazio |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th11 points | 2nd16 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–1 | 5–1–0 |
| Goals for–against | 9–51.5–0.8 per match | 11–41.8–0.7 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 1 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
The analysis
Juventus: few goals at either end
Nine goals scored and five conceded: only one of Juventus’s six games has gone over 2.5 goals, the lowest figure in Serie A together with Cagliari. Three clean sheets and only one defeat; 7 points from three home games. The list of absentees is long: Yildiz, Locatelli, Boga, Ekhator, Khéphren Thuram and goalkeeper Grabara.
Lazio: three away games, three wins
Five wins and a draw, 11 goals scored and just 4 conceded, one more than Roma and Cagliari. Lazio have won all three away games, kept three clean sheets and beat Monza 3-1 last time out. Gudmundsson and Rovella are out, Marusic is a major doubt.
What to expect
The model gives Juventus 46% and Lazio 26%, despite the table: home advantage counts, and so does a Juventus defence that has conceded 5 goals. Expected goals are low, 1.4 to 1.0, and the most likely scores are 1-0 and 1-1 (13%), then 0-0 and 0-1 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 58%, Under 3.5 at 79%. Juventus’s absences weigh, starting with Yildiz and Locatelli.
Our prediction
Juventus vs Lazio · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Juventus win or draw
74% estimated probability
Juventus have taken 7 points from three home games and lost only once all season. The model rates their chance of defeat at 26%.
1X & Under 3.5
Juventus avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
57% estimated probability
Only one of Juventus’s six games has gone over 2.5 goals and Lazio have conceded 4 in total. To Juventus avoiding defeat we add at most three goals.
Juventus clean sheet
Juventus do not concede
38% estimated probability
Juventus have kept three clean sheets in six games, and Lazio are without Gudmundsson. It is the boldest pick, against the team that has won every away game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Juventus clean sheet
- 38%
- Lazio clean sheet
- 25%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.