Serie A · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 18:00 CEST
Milan vs Atalanta: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
San Siro hosts the big Sunday afternoon game. Milan are one of four teams still unbeaten, but they have drawn three of their last four; Atalanta, tenth, have taken all their 9 points at home and lost both away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMilan | AwayAtalanta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th12 points | 10th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–3–0 | 3–0–3 |
| Goals for–against | 11–51.8–0.8 per match | 8–81.3–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 2 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 4 matches | 0in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Milan: unbeaten, but plenty of draws
Three wins and three draws, 11 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home Milan have won both games played, while away they have drawn three times out of four, most recently at Sassuolo (1-1). They lose Gabbia for three to four months and are still without Saelemaekers.
Atalanta: strong at home, stuck on the road
All of Atalanta’s points have come in Bergamo; away from home they have lost both games. Eight goals scored, eight conceded, one clean sheet. Against Venezia they won again after three straight defeats. Elmas is suspended, Kossounou, Hien and Sulemana are out, and Scalvini and Raspadori are doubts: the defence is the hardest-hit area.
What to expect
The model has Milan ahead, 54% to 22%, with 1.7 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-0 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 2-0 and 2-1 (10%). Milan’s clean sheet is rated at 38%: they have conceded 5 goals in six games and Atalanta have not taken a point away from home. For Milan the most likely scorer is Gonçalo Ramos (29%), for Atalanta Krstović (25%).
Our prediction
Milan vs Atalanta · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
75% estimated probability
Atalanta’s games have produced 16 goals, four of them with at least three. With Atalanta’s defence depleted, two goals in total is the most solid reading.
1
Milan win
54% estimated probability
Milan have won both home games and Atalanta have lost both away games. Atalanta are without Elmas, Kossounou, Hien and Sulemana.
1X & Over 2.5
Milan avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
39% estimated probability
Milan have not lost yet and four of Atalanta’s six games have produced at least three goals. To Milan avoiding defeat we add an open game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Milan clean sheet
- 38%
- Atalanta clean sheet
- 18%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.