Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sun 8 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Monza vs Atalanta: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
On Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time) at the U-Power Stadium, Monza, 18th on 7 points, host Atalanta, 13th on 11, in a game the model sees as rich in goals. The hosts come off a 2-1 defeat at Bologna, the visitors a 3-0 home defeat to Parma. Pessina is out for Monza, with Ziolkowski, Folorunsho and Maye doubtful; Kossounou, Bellanova, Hien, Kristensen and Gaetano are out for Atalanta.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMonza | AwayAtalanta |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th7 points | 13th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–7 | 3–2–5 |
| Goals for–against | 17–241.7–2.4 per match | 16–201.6–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 4 matches | 10in 6 matches |
| Points away | 1in 6 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 9 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 9 of 10 | 7 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 10 | 1 of 10 |
The analysis
Monza: nine of ten games with more than two goals
Monza have two wins, one draw and seven defeats, with 17 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from four games, away 1 from six. Nine of their ten games have had more than two goals and both teams have scored in nine; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 2-1 at Bologna, and in their last five games they have won one and lost four. Pessina is out, Ziolkowski, Folorunsho and Maye doubtful.
Atalanta: 1 point from four away games
Atalanta have three wins, two draws and five defeats, with 16 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from six games, away 1 from four. Eight of their ten games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in seven; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they lost 3-0 at home to Parma. Kossounou, Bellanova, Hien, Kristensen and Gaetano are out.
What to expect
The model gives Atalanta 41% and Monza 37%, with the draw at 22% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.8. The most likely scores are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 and 2-1 (8%) and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 70%, both teams to score at 70%; a clean sheet for Atalanta is rated at 17%. Varela has a 54% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Krstović follows at 44%.
Our prediction
Monza vs Atalanta · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
70% estimated probability
Over 2.5, at least 3 goals in total, is rated at 70%: the model expects 3.6 goals and Monza have finished nine of ten games with more than two goals.
Atalanta 2+ goals
Atalanta score at least twice
56% estimated probability
Atalanta 2+ goals, Atalanta score at least twice, is at 56%: the model expects 1.9 goals from the visitors, who have scored 16 in ten games.
2 & Over 1.5
Atalanta win and at least 2 goals in total
36% estimated probability
2 & Over 1.5 (an Atalanta win and at least 2 goals in total) is at 36%: the boldest pick, with 41% for a win for the visitors and 3.6 goals expected in total.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Monza clean sheet
- 16%
- Atalanta clean sheet
- 17%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.