Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sat 7 Nov · 18:00 (Italian time)
Parma vs Bologna: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
On Saturday at 18:00 (Italian time) at the Tardini, Parma, 15th on 8 points, host Bologna, 9th on 14. Parma come off a 3-0 win at Atalanta, Bologna a 2-1 win over Monza. Drobnic and Bernabé are out for Parma, Holm for Bologna, with De Silvestri, Enem and Piccoli doubtful.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeParma | AwayBologna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th8 points | 9th14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–6 | 4–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 8–150.8–1.5 per match | 14–131.4–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 5 matches | 5in 5 matches |
| Points away | 3in 5 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 10 | 5 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 10 | 1 of 10 |
The analysis
Parma: 8 goals scored in ten games
Parma have two wins, two draws and six defeats, with 8 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 5 points from five games, away 3 from five. Six of their ten games have had at least three goals and they have two clean sheets. Last time out they won 3-0 at Atalanta, and in their last five games they have won one and lost three. Drobnic and Bernabé are out.
Bologna: 9 points from five away games
Bologna have four wins, two draws and four defeats, with 14 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home they have taken 5 points from five games, away 9 from five. Five of their ten games have had more than two goals and both teams have scored in six; they have one clean sheet. Last time out they beat Monza 2-1, and in their last five games they have won four and lost one. Holm is out, De Silvestri, Enem and Piccoli doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Bologna 47% and Parma 26%, with the draw at 27% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 0-1 and 1-1 (13%) and 0-0 and 0-2 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 58%, both teams to score at 47%; a clean sheet for Bologna is rated at 38%. Bernardeschi has a 28% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Mbangula follows at 26%.
Our prediction
Parma vs Bologna · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Parma under 1.5 goals
Parma score at most once
75% estimated probability
Parma under 1.5 goals, meaning Parma score at most once, is rated at 75%: the model expects 1.0 goals from the hosts, who have scored 8 in ten games.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
58% estimated probability
Under 2.5, at most 2 goals in total, is at 58%: the model expects 2.4 goals and Parma have scored 0.8 goals a game.
X2 & not both score
Bologna avoid defeat and at least one team fails to score
38% estimated probability
X2 & not both score (Bologna avoid defeat and at least one team fails to score) is at 38%: the model gives Bologna 47% and a Bologna clean sheet 38%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Parma clean sheet
- 25%
- Bologna clean sheet
- 38%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.