Serie A · Matchday 7 · Sat 17 Oct · 20:45 CEST
Roma vs Genoa: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
On Saturday night at the Olimpico, Roma, third and still unbeaten, host Genoa. They will be without Malen, suspended, and Svilar, out until the end of November, so Gollini starts in goal. Genoa are seventeenth on 4 points, but last weekend they beat Fiorentina 2-1 for their first win of the season.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRoma | AwayGenoa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd14 points | 17th4 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–0 | 1–1–4 |
| Goals for–against | 14–32.3–0.5 per match | 5–110.8–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 7in 3 matches | 0in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 6 | 3 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Roma: 3 goals conceded in six games
Four wins and two draws, 14 goals scored and just 3 conceded, the best defence in the league together with Cagliari. Roma have kept four clean sheets in six games and taken 7 points from three at home. They come off two draws, 2-2 with Inter and 0-0 at Como. Malen, their top scorer, is a big loss; Cristante is a major doubt.
Genoa: no clean sheets yet
One win, one draw and four defeats: Genoa score little, 5 goals, and have never kept a clean sheet, conceding 11 in total. They have lost both away games. The 2-1 against Fiorentina lifted spirits, but Colombo, Sow and Venturino remain out and Meichtry is a doubt.
What to expect
The model gives Roma 75% and Genoa 9%, with 2.3 expected goals to 0.7. The most likely scores are 2-0 (14%), 1-0 (12%) and 3-0 (11%), and Roma’s clean sheet is rated at 52%. The model does not know about Malen’s absence: with him out, Roma’s goals have to come from Soulé (29%), Dybala and Koné (23%).
Our prediction
Roma vs Genoa · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1
Roma win
75% estimated probability
Roma have not lost yet and have conceded 3 goals in six games; Genoa have lost both away games and never kept a clean sheet.
Roma win by 2+ goals
Roma win by at least two goals
52% estimated probability
Genoa have conceded in every game and score less than a goal a game. Even without Malen, the model puts a comfortable Roma win at 52%.
Matías Soulé to score
Matías Soulé scores at least once
29% estimated probability
With Malen suspended, the weight of the attack shifts to Soulé and Dybala. Soulé is the Roma player most likely to score, against a defence that has never kept a clean sheet.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Roma clean sheet
- 52%
- Genoa clean sheet
- 10%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.