Serie A · Matchday 11 · Sat 7 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Roma vs Sassuolo: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Roma, third on 24 points and with the best attack in the league, host Sassuolo, 17th on 8 and with the most-conceded defence, at the Olimpico on Saturday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 5-2 win at Udinese, the visitors a 4-2 defeat at home to Fiorentina. Svilar, Manu Koné, Rensch and Pellegrini are out for Roma, Ibrahim Koné, Leysen and Volpato for Sassuolo.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRoma | AwaySassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd24 points | 17th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 7–3–0 | 2–2–6 |
| Goals for–against | 28–102.8–1.0 per match | 16–261.6–2.6 per match |
| Points at home | 13in 5 matches | 7in 5 matches |
| Points away | 11in 5 matches | 1in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 10 | 8 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 10 | 9 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 5 of 10 | 0 of 10 |
The analysis
Roma: the best attack in the league
Roma have seven wins and three draws, with no defeats, 28 goals scored and 10 conceded, the best attack in the league. At home they have taken 13 points from five games, away 11 from five. Seven of their ten games have had at least three goals and they have kept five clean sheets. Last time out they won 5-2 at Udinese, and in their last five games they have won three and drawn two. Svilar, Manu Koné, Rensch and Pellegrini are out, Dybala and Gollini doubtful.
Sassuolo: the most-conceded defence in the league
Sassuolo have two wins, two draws and six defeats, with 16 goals scored and 26 conceded, the most in the league. At home they have taken 7 points from five games, away 1 from five. Eight of their ten games have had more than two goals and they have no clean sheets. Last time out they lost 4-2 at home to Fiorentina, and in their last five games they have drawn one and lost four. Ibrahim Koné, Leysen and Volpato are out, Boloca and Idzes doubtful.
What to expect
The model gives Roma 79% and Sassuolo 9%, with the draw at 12% and 3.2 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 3-1 and 3-0 and 2-1 and 2-0 (8%): at 4.2 expected goals in total it is the highest-scoring game of the round. Over 2.5 is at 79%, both teams to score at 61%; a clean sheet for Roma is rated at 36%. Malen has a 57% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Mora follows at 35%.
Our prediction
Roma vs Sassuolo · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1 & Over 1.5
Roma win and at least 2 goals in total
74% estimated probability
1 & Over 1.5 (a Roma win and at least 2 goals in total) is rated at 74%: the model gives 79% to a win for the hosts and expects 3.2 goals from Roma.
Over 1.5 first half
At least 2 goals in the first half
56% estimated probability
Over 1.5 first half, at least 2 goals in the first half, is at 56%: the model expects 4.2 goals in total and Sassuolo have finished eight of ten games with more than two goals.
Over 4.5
At least 5 goals in total
41% estimated probability
Over 4.5, at least 5 goals, is at 41%: the boldest pick, with 4.2 goals expected in total, the highest figure of the round.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Roma clean sheet
- 36%
- Sassuolo clean sheet
- 4%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.