Serie A · Matchday 7 · Sun 18 Oct · 12:30 CEST
Udinese vs Lecce: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Sunday lunchtime brings together two teams in need of points. Udinese have lost their last four games and are fifteenth on 4 points; Lecce, thirteenth on 6, lost at home to Bologna (1-2) and have been beaten four times in six games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeUdinese | AwayLecce |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th4 points | 13th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–4 | 2–0–4 |
| Goals for–against | 9–131.5–2.2 per match | 6–121.0–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Udinese: four defeats in a row
After a draw and a win in the first two rounds, Udinese have lost four in a row, most recently 2-1 in Turin. They have taken one point from three home games and never kept a clean sheet: 13 goals conceded. They do score regularly, 9 goals, and both teams have scored in five of their six games. Zaniolo, Piotrowski and Gueye are out.
Lecce: few goals scored, many conceded
Two wins and four defeats, 6 goals scored and 12 conceded. Lecce have won once at home and once away, and kept just one clean sheet. Both teams have scored in only two of their six games: often one side fails to score. Berisha is out in defence, while Ilić and Stulić are doubts.
What to expect
The model has Udinese ahead, 53% to 25%, with 1.9 expected goals to 1.2: Lecce’s defence, which concedes two a game, weighs heavily. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (10%), then 1-0 and 2-0 (8%), and Over 2.5 is at 61%. The counterpoint is form: Udinese have lost four straight and are still without a home win.
Our prediction
Udinese vs Lecce · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Udinese win or draw
75% estimated probability
Lecce have lost four of six and conceded 12 goals. Udinese are still without a home win, but the model rates their chance of defeat at only 25%.
Udinese 2+ goals
Udinese score at least twice
57% estimated probability
Lecce concede two goals a game and have kept just one clean sheet. Despite the defeats, Udinese have scored 9 goals, one and a half per game.
1 & Over 2.5
Udinese win and at least 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
Four of Udinese’s six games and four of Lecce’s six have produced at least three goals. If Udinese end their losing run, they will probably do it in an open game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Udinese clean sheet
- 29%
- Lecce clean sheet
- 15%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.