Serie A · Matchday 11 · Fri 6 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Venezia vs Udinese: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
On Friday at 20:45 (Italian time) the Penzo hosts a clash between the bottom two in the table: Venezia are 20th on 3 points, Udinese 19th on 5. Venezia have the worst attack in the league and come off a 1-0 defeat at Como; Udinese lost 5-2 at home to Roma. Franjić and Sverko are out for Venezia, Gueye, Bayo, Alaba and Zanoli for Udinese.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeVenezia | AwayUdinese |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th3 points | 19th5 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–0–9 | 1–2–7 |
| Goals for–against | 6–200.6–2.0 per match | 11–231.1–2.3 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 5 matches | 1in 6 matches |
| Points away | 0in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 10 | 6 of 10 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 10 | 1 of 10 |
The analysis
Venezia: the worst attack in the league
Venezia have won one game and lost nine of ten, with just 6 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from five games, away none from five. They have kept one clean sheet; last time out they lost 1-0 at Como. Franjić and Sverko are out, Adorante and Correia doubtful.
Udinese: 1 point from six home games
Udinese have one win, two draws and seven defeats, with 11 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have taken 1 point from six games, away 4 from four. Six of their ten games have had more than two goals and both teams have scored in six; last time out they lost 5-2 to Roma. Gueye, Bayo, Alaba and Zanoli are out, Karlström is one booking from a ban.
What to expect
The model gives Venezia 40% and Udinese 34%, with the draw at 26% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%) and 0-1 and 2-1 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 52%, both teams to score at 53%; a clean sheet for Venezia is rated at 29%. Adams has a 30% chance of scoring, the highest figure in the game; Sagrado follows at 24%.
Our prediction
Venezia vs Udinese · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
73% estimated probability
Under 3.5 at 73%: the model expects 2.6 goals in total and Venezia score 0.6 goals a game, the worst attack in the league.
Venezia under 1.5 goals
Venezia score at most once
60% estimated probability
The model gives 60% to Venezia under 1.5 goals, meaning Venezia score at most once: they have scored 6 goals in ten games and the model expects 1.4.
Not both score & Under 2.5
At least one team fails to score and at most 2 goals
39% estimated probability
Not both score & Under 2.5 (at least one team fails to score and at most 2 goals in total) is rated at 39%: the model gives 29% to a Venezia clean sheet and 26% to an Udinese one.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Venezia clean sheet
- 29%
- Udinese clean sheet
- 26%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.