Bundesliga · Matchday 8 · Sat 31 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Augsburg vs Freiburg: preview and prediction
Preview
Augsburg v Freiburg is on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). Augsburg are ninth with 9 points and 17 goals scored, Freiburg third with 13 points and 9 conceded. Augsburg drew 1-1 at home to Union Berlin, while Freiburg lost 3-1 at home to Bayern Munich.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAugsburg | AwayFreiburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th9 points | 3rd13 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–2 | 4–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 17–132.4–1.9 per match | 16–92.3–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 4 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
The analysis
Augsburg: 17 goals scored in seven games
Two wins, three draws and two defeats, 17 goals scored and 13 conceded. At home Augsburg have taken 6 points in four games, away 3 in three. They drew 1-1 at home to Union Berlin. Six of their seven games have had at least three goals, and in six both teams scored.
Freiburg: nine points from four home games
Four wins, one draw and two defeats, 16 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home Freiburg have taken 9 points in four games, away 4 in three. They come off a 3-1 home defeat by Bayern Munich. Six of their seven games have had at least three goals; on two occasions they have kept a clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives Freiburg 40% and Augsburg 38%, with the draw at 22% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.8. The most likely scores are 1-1 (9%), 1-2 and 2-1 (8%) and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 70%, both teams to score at 70%; a clean sheet for Freiburg is rated at 17%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Augsburg vs Freiburg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
70% estimated probability
The model gives 70% to Over 2.5, meaning at least 3 goals in total. It rates Augsburg at 1.8 goals and Freiburg at 1.9, 3.6 in total; six of seven games for both have had at least three goals.
Came true
Total goals 3-5
From 3 to 5 goals in total
54% estimated probability
The model gives 54% to Total goals 3-5, meaning from 3 to 5 goals in total. The expected goals are 3.6 and the model gives 70% to both teams scoring.
Came true
1X & Over 2.5
Augsburg avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
39% estimated probability
The model gives 39% to 1X & Over 2.5: Augsburg avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total. It gives 38% to an Augsburg win and 22% to the draw; a Freiburg win is worth 40%.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.